Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
