A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
